A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
